Meeting the Moment, the Fourth Turning, and the Ways of the Duck
The news cycle has moved from continuous to relentless and now to brutal. Our world is in hyperdrive, hurtling for what looks like a cliff fast approaching. It’s understandable if you’re feeling shell-shocked.
At the risk of torturing the World War II analogy beyond recognition, the past month has brought to mind the German Blitzkrieg, which tore through the Ardennes Forest in 1940 to capture the prize—Paris.
Blitzkrieg and Lessons From History
The Blitzkrieg strategy gave the Germans a physical and psychological advantage in the war’s first days and months. Between 1939 and 1940, the Poles, French, Norwegians, and Belgians suddenly awoke to a new world order, their land occupied, their lives upended-or just ended. The German army seemed unstoppable.
That didn’t stop the resistance in France, Britain, and throughout Europe that slowly eroded the German stranglehold, eventually leading to the collapse of Hitler’s Germany.
Whether characterized as political blitzkrieg, flooding the zone with shit, or quietly sucking all the oxygen from the room, the intent is the same. To overwhelm, disorient, demoralize, and disperse any opposition to the attack. It may work at first, with ground captured and imagined enemies vanquished, but the scale of the resistance is proportional to the oppression. It has patience and resolve. It is centered and quietly courageous. It prepares for battle wisely and deliberately.
This isn’t Europe in the 1930s and 40s. I intend not to compare a contemporaneous individual with Hitler (not hard to find). Nonetheless, in meeting our current moment, it is worthwhile to consider what brought the world to war, the political forces and social conditions at play, and how the human spirit can overcome its worst impulses.
We ignore history only to repeat its themes and fall endlessly into their traps.
The Fourth Turning: Generational Amnesia and the Cycles of History
If it seems bleak right now, it’s because it is. Under the barrage of destructive policies, hateful rhetoric, and mass delusion fed by a finely-tuned misinformation machine, we feel powerless against the forces of history and the corrupt foolishness of the ruling class. We may not be powerful, but neither are we helpless.
As the adage says, this too shall pass.
The Strauss-Howe generational theory, articulated in their book The Fourth Turning, posits that Anglo-American history unfolds in predictable 80–100-year cycles called saecula, each divided into four 20–25-year “Turnings.”
These eras oscillate between institutional cohesion and societal fragmentation, driven by generational archetypes whose values clash or align with the dominant mood.
The theory divides these Turnings thusly:
- High: Characterized by optimism, this First Turning is an “upbeat” era where institutions are strongest and individualism is weakest. Social values converge, seeking unity
- Awakening: The Second Turning is a “passionate” era. Values are questioned, individualism strengthens, and institutions weaken
- Unraveling: The Third Turning is a “downbeat” period. Individualism peaks, and institutions are at their weakest. Values diverge while society seeks separation
- Crisis: The Fourth Turning is a “decisive” era. There is a resurgence of institutions and a weakening of individualism. The last Crisis phase brought us World War II
Historical analogs to a Fourth Turning include the American Revolution, the Civil War, and, as I previously illustrated, World War II. Each event was characterized by authoritarian challenges that tested democratic resilience.
A Fourth Turning unfolds through three stages:
- Catalyst: A destabilizing event (for example, the 1929 crash or the 2008 recession) triggers public urgency.
- Regeneracy: Society unifies around new priorities, often under centralized leadership.
- Resolution: A decisive conflict (war, revolution) produces a new civic order
The Catalyst and the Crisis
In 2025, the Catalyst arises from overlapping crises (polycrises), including climate disasters, economic inequality, or democratic erosion. Numerous examples highlight the tactics as laid out in Trump’s Project 2025 agenda playing out during this phase, including:
- Weaponizing executive authority to license lawbreaking
- Deploying federal agencies against critics
- Militarizing domestic policing
- Regulatory retaliation and the dismantling of public education
- Narrative control through higher education purges
Such measures reflect historical patterns where “Crisis” eras empower leaders to consolidate control, echoing 1930s fascist playbooks. The resurgence of authoritarianism embodied in policy blueprints like Project 2025 signals a convergence of cyclical forces and generational amnesia, risking the repetition of 20th-century totalitarian horrors. My father, who would have turned 98 earlier this month, joined the war in the mop-up phase. The generation that put down fascist authoritarianism in the mid-twentieth century is fading into history, along with the battles they fought.
Historical cycles do not preordain the future but help us frame our response, gather strength, and build community. Understanding the outlines of history can lift us above the fray, reveal the larger context of human history, and provide us with choices.
The Ways of the Duck helps nurture the best in us, even in the bleakest of times, to move through crisis into a better world.
The Ways of the Duck
I connected with Scott Poynton last year on LinkedIn. I joined a community he founded called A Different Way at his invitation. In that regard, Scott is a builder—the kind of builder this world desperately needs.
Scott founded the Pond Foundation and Tropical Forest Trust, which eventually became the Forest Trust as its work expanded beyond the tropics. His humble wisdom and empathy helped bring together once-vowed foes to an agreement.
During his 20-year tenure as CEO of TFT, Scott helped establish social conservation and social livelihood programs throughout Europe, the United States, West Africa, the Congo Basin, the Brazilian Amazon, China, and Southeast Asia.
I joined his community of like-minded souls for weekly online calls, social entrepreneurial hotseats, and the breadth of Scott’s wisdom and experience. He recently rebranded A Different Way into The School for Duck Whisperers, inspired by the work of Michael Leunig. Scott turned me on to the beloved Australian artist-philosopher, who often used the image of the Duck as his leitmotif in his works, including When I Talk to You and A Common Prayer.
In his introduction to A Common Prayer, Leunig writes:
“ The duck in the picture represents one thing and many things: nature, instinct, feeling, beauty, innocence, the primal, the non-rational, and the mysterious unsayable; qualities we can easily attribute to a duck and qualities which, coincidentally and remarkably, we can easily attribute to the inner life of the kneeling man, not his spirit or his soul. The duck then, in this picture, can be seen as a symbol of the human spirit, and in wanting connection with his spirit it is a symbolic picture of a man searching for his soul. “
The School for Duck Whispering incorporates “living authentically, guided by intuition, humility, and balance. It’s a philosophy that invites us to find calm, reconnect with our values, and align our actions with what truly matters.”
Scott and The School for Duck Whisperers inspire me to maintain hope in a chaotic time, the Fourth Turning.
Finding Peace in a Troubled Time
We risk our health and humanity by remaining perpetually enraged and constantly triggered. This is not the Way of the Duck.
The long fight ahead requires rest, reflection, and communion with beauty. Through the dross of human ugliness and excess, there is calm-even transcendence. I find a place of solitude and rest as I watch the ocean waves on a sunny Sunday afternoon or listen to the interweaving lines of music as I lay in bed at midnight. I discover my inner duck.
We live, even thrive, to fight another day.
From Our February 2025 Newsletter. Please Subscribe!
Originally published at https://globalwarmingisreal.com on February 27, 2025.
